The year
The Belt Opens and Mars Crosses the Line
The primary horizon is the one this site is built around.
By 2075 the inner system runs on its own materials where they close: lunar water and bulk through the mass driver, propellant at EML-1, Ceres water and propellant sold to customers in the Belt. Nothing ships bulk to Earth; three of six regimes export material, all to local customers.
Mars has crossed the line no one announces: its population exceeds what can be evacuated, decided by not building the second ferry. At 9.7-24.7 kW per resident, 500 people is a 10 MW settlement, and food lighting is the largest load - a farm with a reactor. It is still not independent. Six of nine critical inputs are shared with Earth, three of them a few hundred kilograms a year.
Callisto is the first outer anchor - bunkering and a gateway - and is uncrewed. The Moon can grow large and never becomes a polity: at 2.6 seconds round trip it stays operationally attached to Earth.
Destination by destination
Every Destination in 2075
What exists, what is still building, and how firm each row is. Detail lives on each destination page.
| Destination | What exists | Building | Rated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earth Orbit | Mature compute and manufacturing in orbit | Compute migration near its end state | Modeled |
| Cislunar Space | Propellant economy at EML-1; depots sell conversion slots | Outbound staging for Mars and the Belt | Modeled |
| The Moon | Mass driver exporting bulk; rotating crews; cold compute | Larger site; never a polity | Modeled |
| Mars | Settlement past the evacuation line; a 10 MW farm with a reactor | Independence not yet reached | Modeled |
| Venus | Science only | Nothing industrial | Modeled |
| Mercury | First collector and laser elements | The 100 GW-class beam array | Modeled |
| The Asteroid Belt | Ceres water and propellant to local customers | Industrialization underway | Modeled |
| Jovian System | Callisto anchor: bunkering and gateway, uncrewed | Crewed only once megawatt nuclear propulsion flies | Modeled |
| Saturnian System | Titan refinery under study or early build | Aerocapture cargo | Modeled |
| Neptune System | Triton gateway, conditional | Kuiper Belt access | Modeled |
| Pluto & the Edge | Conditional far outpost | Volatile depot for the outward corridor | Modeled |
| Interstellar | Beam infrastructure building | Flyby campaign ahead of a 2085 launch | Modeled |
The human
Physiologically Different, Genetically the Same
Medical baselines split by environment before any genetic divergence.
| Period | Transition | What changes | Rated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2055-2065 | Multi-environment human | Earth, Moon, Mars and orbital residents carry distinct medical baselines; children raised off Earth give the first developmental evidence; one person commands hundreds of machines | Modeled |
| 2065-2076 | Deliberately engineered adaptation | Reversible molecular and cell therapies; regenerative repair of accumulated damage; settlements make their own daylight and much of their food | Modeled |
The laboratory reference range becomes location-dependent: a Mars-born adult may be healthy on Mars and disabled at 1 g. Off Earth there are about 103 to 104 people, and their number is set by transport and training, not births. Detail on habitats, suits, dose and settlements is on The Human Layer.
China
China in 2075
| Program | Position | Rated |
|---|---|---|
| ILRS · CNSA and Roscosmos | Mature south-pole station sharing Shackleton's cold traps | Modeled |
| CMSA crewed program | Rotations to the Moon; Mars intent unannounced | Modeled |
| Tianwen series · CNSA | Successors at Mars, the Belt and Jupiter | Modeled |
| Chinese state industrial complex | The one stack spanning every capability under one owner | Modeled |
What has to be true
What Has to Go Right First
Propellant depots fed by lunar water, a plant output ratio high enough to double the installed base in years rather than decades, nuclear electric cargo to Ceres, and the partial-gravity results that decide whether Mars can be settled rather than only occupied.
Contested
Deliberately Not Claimed
The load-bearing uncertainties, tagged with the confidence they actually earn.
The calendar is softer than the order. A slip in propellant transfer or launch cost moves every 2075 row right; the sequence holds.
The sovereignty event can come first. The first adult who cannot come home, or the first child born on Mars, can happen before independence - see Governance.
Record
Provenance and Data Sources
- Confidence
- Observed for flown, fielded or measured - Building for hardware and programs in development - Projected for announced plans - Modeled for original analysis
- Status date
- Q4 2026
- Weakest link
- Any destination row past the first crewed landing