Why this class exists
The ISS Retires in 2030 and Only Tiangong Is Certain to Outlive It
Crewed volume in low orbit is where microgravity research, crew training and orbital tourism happen.
The International Space Station is scheduled to deorbit in 2030 on a SpaceX-built US Deorbit Vehicle. NASA's plan to replace it with commercial stations has been redrawn three times in a year. An August 2025 directive cut the minimum to four crew for one-month stays and moved to funded Space Act Agreements, with $2.1B over five years against a reported $4B shortfall. In March 2026 NASA proposed a NASA-owned core module instead, then reversed in June after industry pushback. A draft request for proposals went out on 6 July; awards are now expected in spring 2027. NASA has given industry under $600M since 2020, against more than $3B of private money. Building
China's Tiangong is the counterexample: continuously crewed since 2022, flying its first year-long mission, and hosting a Pakistani astronaut in October 2026. When debris cracked Shenzhou-20's window in November 2025, CMSA brought the crew home on the next ship and launched an uncrewed Shenzhou-22 as a lifeboat within 20 days - a rescue capability no commercial Western station has yet shown. Observed
Western stations
Four Commercial Stations, None Crewed Before 2027
Vast, Axiom, Starlab and Orbital Reef are the main contenders for NASA's next awards.
| Station · company | Plan | Status | Rated |
|---|---|---|---|
| International Space Station · NASA and partners | Deorbit 2030 | Crew-13 docked 1 October 2026. SpaceX holds the $843M US Deorbit Vehicle contract; a Senate bill would extend operations to 2032 | Observed |
| Haven Demo · Vast | Pathfinder | Deployed from Bandwagon-4 on 2 November 2025; mission success | Observed |
| Haven-1 · Vast | Single module, 4 crew | Slipped to no earlier than Q1 2027 on Falcon 9; first crew flight Vast-1 on Crew Dragon for 10-30 days | Building |
| Haven-2 · Vast | Multi-module, continuous crew | Planned before 2030 | Projected |
| Axiom Station · Axiom Space | PPTM first, then Hab-1 | Payload Power Thermal Module no earlier than 2027, docking to the ISS before separating; raised $525M+ in June 2026; Ax-5 no earlier than January 2027 | Building |
| Starlab · Voyager, Airbus, Mitsubishi, MDA Space, Palantir | Single module on Starship | Completed NASA commercial critical design review February 2026; launch 2028-2029; $217.5M from NASA | Building |
| Orbital Reef · Blue Origin and Sierra Space | 830 m³, 10 crew | Late 2020s; no 2026 milestone published | Projected |
| Gravitics | Modules and Orbital Carrier | $125M module for Axiom; up to $60M Space Force STRATFI (April 2026); Nasdaq listing by reverse merger announced September 2026 | Building |
| Thunderbird · Max Space | Expandable, one Falcon 9 | Unveiled early 2026 | Projected |
State stations
Tiangong Is Expanding While India and Russia Plan Their Own
China, India and Russia are building national stations outside the commercial model.
| Station · operator | Plan | Status | Rated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiangong · CMSA | 3 modules, continuously crewed since 2022 | Shenzhou-23 launched 24 May 2026 with Hong Kong's first astronaut and China's first year-long stay; Tianzhou-10 delivered a record 6,300 kg on 11 May 2026 | Observed |
| Shenzhou-24 · CMSA | Pakistani astronaut | Planned October 2026; the first foreign astronaut on Tiangong | Building |
| Tiangong expansion · CMSA | 6 modules, ~180 t | Cross-shaped layout around a new node on Tianhe; no dates announced | Projected |
| Mengzhou-1 · CMSA | Next-generation crew ship | First uncrewed orbital flight on Long March 10A, docking at Tiangong, planned late 2026 | Building |
| Bharatiya Antariksh Station · ISRO | 5 modules, 52 t | First module BAS-01 targeted 2028; full station 2035 | Projected |
| Russian Orbital Station · Roscosmos | Assembled on the ISS | First module launches on Proton in 2029; separates around 2030 | Projected |
Transport
One US Crew Vehicle Serves Every Western Station
Every Western commercial station plans its first crews on Crew Dragon.
| Vehicle | Role | Status | Rated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crew Dragon · SpaceX | Crew | The only US crew vehicle in service; Crew-13 on 1 October 2026 | Observed |
| Starliner · Boeing | Cargo only | Cut to cargo in November 2025; Starliner-1 slipped to Q4 2026 for a seal redesign | Building |
| Dream Chaser · Sierra Space | Cargo | Guaranteed ISS flights dropped September 2025; free-flyer demo late 2026 | Building |
| Shenzhou and Tianzhou · CMSA | Crew and cargo | Shenzhou-22 flew uncrewed as a replacement lifeboat after debris cracked Shenzhou-20's window in November 2025 | Observed |
Contested
Deliberately Not Claimed
The load-bearing uncertainties, tagged with the confidence they actually earn.
A gap in continuous US presence in low orbit is a planning case. No Western commercial station has flown crew, awards slip to 2027, and the extension bill to 2032 has not passed.
Crew Dragon is the only Western crew ride. Starliner is cargo-only. A Dragon grounding would stop crew to the ISS and to every planned commercial station at once.
Commercial demand without NASA is unproven. Mitsubishi is Starlab's anchor customer and Axiom flies private missions, but no station has closed a business case on non-government revenue.
Record
Provenance and Data Sources
- Confidence
- Observed for flown, fielded or measured - Building for hardware and programs in development - Projected for announced plans - Modeled for original analysis
- Status date
- Q4 2026
- NASA
- Commercial LEO Destinations directive (4 August 2025); Ignition proposal (24 March 2026) and reversal (1 June 2026); draft CLDC request for proposals (6 July 2026); US Deorbit Vehicle award (June 2024)
- Companies
- Vast, Axiom, Voyager/Starlab, Gravitics and Max Space announcements
- China and others
- CMSA Shenzhou-20 to -24 and Tianzhou-10 releases; ISRO BAS-01 tender (January 2026); Roscosmos ROS decision (December 2025)
- Weakest link
- NASA funding and award timing; crew transport concentration